19 July 2008

Paul Krugman is my favorite columnist...

...and in his latest number, Krugman - a Princeton economist and a tell-it-like-it is hero of the progressive cause - beautifully breaks down the economic challenge facing Barack Obama.

Krugman has long been a champion of universal health care, and in this column, he makes a great point: enacting a universal plan would do wonders toward improving the economic well-being of millions of Americans, even in the face of a slump in growth of GDP. From L-ish Economic Prospects, published July 18, 2008:

Given the state of the economy, it’s hard to see how Barack Obama can lose the 2008 election. An anecdote: This week a passing motorist shouted at a crowd waiting outside a branch of IndyMac, the failed bank, “Bush economics didn’t work! They are right-wing Republican thieves!” The crowd cheered.

But what the economy gives, it can also take away. If the current slump follows the typical modern pattern, the economy will stay depressed well into 2010, if not beyond — plenty of time for the public to start blaming the new incumbent, and punish him in the midterm elections.

To avoid that fate, Mr. Obama — if he is indeed the next president — will have to move quickly and forcefully to address America’s economic discontent. That means another stimulus plan, bigger, better, and more sustained than the one Congress passed earlier this year. It also means passing longer-term measures to reduce economic anxiety — above all, universal health care.

If you ask me, there isn’t much suspense in this year’s election: barring some extraordinary mistakes, Mr. Obama will win. Assuming he wins, the real question is what he’ll make of his victory.