A cool map of Demo campaign stops...

...makes for a few moments of interactive and informative fun, courtesy of the New York Times.

Check the map for more candidate-by-candidate info, for candidates from both major parties.

Kucinich supporters like me often lament how the media seems to ignore his campaign, but the maps slices at right offer a different perspective on why he isn't getting much voter traction. He's got New Hampshire covered, but the top 3 candidates seem to be stumping much harder in Iowa and elsewhere.

A note, however: it could be that Kucinich is not hitting Iowa hard because he has bigger plans, beyond the Democratic nomination. Stay tuned...

When a senator bows out...

...with 4 years left in a term, do the voters who elected him get any recourse?

Today, Trent Lott announced he would retire from the U.S. Senate by the end of this year, though he'd just been re-elected in 2006. The reason? To paraphrase MSNBC, it's so he can become a lobbyist before tougher lobbying rules take effect in the next few months. More specifically, here's how one commenter sums it up:

"If you retire after January 1, 2008, you must wait 2 years before becoming a lobbyist. That's the reason Hair Helmet is resigning now. It's all about continuing to enrich himself at the taxpayer's expense."

To me, this is one more example of how we need more than just the money out of our political system - we need to get money fiend personalities out of our political system. In my opinion, congresspeople should take vows of penury; once elected, they should receive the median income of the district they represent - for the rest of their lives.

That would certainly shift the D.C. personality mix a bit. For example, I don't think Bush would have thrown his hat into such a ring. Which is practically grounds for resting the case.

The Best of Bush

"I gotta go to Vegas...Somethin' about - what happens in Vegas stays there or something?"

Outsourcing the military means big bucks...

...for companies like Halliburton, a firm whose stock market value currently totals $35 billion. Recently, I listened to a public conference call between Wall Street analysts and Dyncorp, sort of a mini version of Dick Cheney's HAL. Here are some excerpts from the call, which was led by Dyncorp's CEO Herbert Lanese and offered a firsthand view of the business of war:

"...our CIVPOL program in Iraq was extended through November of this year, and we’ve since been informed that a further extension through February of 2008 will be funded soon. Our CIVPOL program in Afghanistan has been extended through August of 2008, while the Afghanistan Poppy Eradication Program has been extended through September of 2008. We’ve also been re-awarded extensions on both our Contract Field Teams program, our CFT program, and our War Reserve Materiel or WRM contracts, both of those through September of 2008."

"The CIVPOL, or Civilian Police Program, in Iraq and Afghanistan, is a very large and complex program. And as you might imagine, as with other large complex government contracts, it’s not unusual for the contractor and its government customer to identify and address a number of issues that may arise during the course of contractor performance. We are, above all else, serious about the integrity of our operations. Neither I nor any of the people who work for me at this point in our careers are going to damage our good reputations with something silly."

"It is very important for our shareholders to understand that we compete with Blackwater in a very narrow field that currently represents 2% of our revenue. I want to repeat that: 2% of our revenue. So when you compare us to Blackwater, 2% of our revenue is on the same basis as Blackwater. Unfortunately, it is very visible work that tends to attract a disproportionate amount of attention that I believe unfairly distorts the image of Dyncorp."

Herbert Lanese: Yeah, and the Marine Corps has just put out it’s own solicitation for [armored vehicles] and it’s in the 20-some-thousands as well, too, and that’s not in any of the numbers I am talking about yet. So look, I just think it’s got great opportunity for us. It’s something I am really excited about.
Wall Street analyst: Your enthusiasm is palpable.Thank you very much.
Herbert Lanese: [laughter] Yes, thank you. Sorry to be emotional on these calls, but I do get excited about this stuff. I love this stuff I do.

Key facts on Iraq...

...compiled by the Associated Press:

U.S. TROOP LEVELS:
January 2007: 137,000
October 2007: 170,000

CASUALTIES as of 10/31/07:
Confirmed U.S. military deaths: 3,838
Confirmed U.S. military wounded: 28,385
Deaths of civilian employees of U.S. gov't contractors: 1,073
Iraqi civilian deaths from war-related violence: more than 75,000 (est.)
Assassinated Iraqi academics: 336
Journalists killed on assignment: 122

COST:
Stepped-up military operations are costing about $12 billion a month, with Iraq accounting for $10 billion per month, according to congressional analysis. Total cost to the U.S. government so far is more than $464 billion. A January 2007 study by Linda Bilmes of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government put the total projected cost of providing medical care and disability benefits to veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan at $350 billion to $700 billion.

OIL PRODUCTION:
Prewar: 2.58 million barrels per day
Oct. 21, 2007: 2.36 million barrels per day

ELECTRICITY
Prewar nationwide: 3,958 megawatts. Hours per day (est.): four to eight
Oct. 23, 2007, nationwide: 4,790 megawatts. Hours per day: 13.1
Prewar Baghdad: 2,500 megawatts. Hours per day (est.): 16-24
Oct. 23, 2007, Baghdad: Megawatts not available. Hours per day: 8.9
Note: Current Baghdad megawatt figures are no longer reported by the U.S. State Department's Iraq Weekly Status Report.

TELEPHONES:
Prewar land lines: 833,000
March 13, 2007: 1,111,000
Prewar cell phones: 80,000
March 13, 2007: 8,720,038

WATER:
Prewar: 12.9 million people had potable water
Oct. 18, 2007: 19.6 million people have potable water

SEWERAGE
Prewar: 6.2 million people served
Oct. 18, 2007: 11.3 million people served

INTERNAL REFUGEES:
Oct. 23, 2007: At least 2.3 million people have been displaced inside Iraq...Iraqis have made some 19,800 asylum claims during the first six months of 2007, a 45 percent increase compared to the previous six months, when 13,600 applications were received.

EMIGRANTS:
Prewar: 500,000 Iraqis living abroad.
Oct. 23, 2007: More than 2.2 million in neighboring countries.

Dennis Kucinich rolled into San Diego...

... this past weekend, to speak at a gathering at the home of a UCSD biology professor. Kucinich, his wife Elizabeth, and her mother all turned out for the occasion, and the crowd responded warmly to Dennis's calls for strength through peace, a national health care system, and a "Works Green" Administration.

I was happy to note that the Union-Tribune saw fit to cover the event with a reporter, who filed an article that captured the event quite nicely.

For more on Dennis Kucinich's views, check his website, and maybe even his video updates. If you're in San Diego, join his San Diego team.

Here comes a big day of protest...

...with big regional rallies scheduled for Saturday, October 27. For more info, click here.

Anti-war sentiment up, protests down...

...that's the moral from a Reuters article on dwindling turnout at recent anti-war events, particularly in DC. Issues include fatigue, frustration, in-fighting among activist groups, and the Internet, which may have eclipsed the street corner as the place to protest:

U.S. protests shrink while antiwar sentiment grows
By Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Crowds at antiwar rallies in Washington have dwindled even as U.S. opinion has turned against the war in Iraq, as organizers feud and participants question the effectiveness of the street protests. Rival antiwar groups, which in years past jointly sponsored massive rallies on the National Mall, have promoted separate protests recently or decided to steer clear of the capital altogether...

United for Peace and Justice, which has tried to focus on ending the Iraq war, drew 100,000 people to a January protest. The group plans 11 regional demonstrations later this month, but none in Washington. ANSWER has called for antiwar groups to join forces for a large rally in the spring...

Antiwar leaders say recent smaller protests reflect new tactics, not disorganization. Smaller activist groups like Code Pink have been a colorful, disruptive presence at congressional hearings and appearances by Bush administration officials. "There's times when we've had half a million people out in the streets, and there's times when it's important just to be there," Langley said.

But others said it is less likely they'll head to Washington at all. "People are tired, they are frustrated because they didn't expect this to go on so long," said Laura Bonham, a spokeswoman for Progressive Democrats of America, which lobbies lawmakers to support a withdrawal. "It's like, well, we can stay home."

Largely absent from the actions are young people, who were the majority of Vietnam-era protesters -- perhaps because they do not risk being drafted into the military or from a sense that they can express their opposition to the war on the Internet, rather than on the streets, [Hamilton College history professor Maurice] Isserman said.

Cindy Sheehan, Bree Walker, and Camp Casey...

...are the highlights of this 20-minute video from back in July, when peace movement hero Cindy Sheehan celebrated her 50th birthday at Camp Casey in Crawford, Texas, and passed the camp's deed to Air America's Bree Walker. Here's some footage from a special weekend, including music from Jesse Dyen and Hank Woji.

A chilling summary of U.S. foreign policy...

...comes in the prologue to Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, a fascinating 2004 confession by John Perkins, who built a career of furthering the international interests of what he now calls "the corporatocracy." His story sheds light on the self-serving motives behind much of the push for globalization and offers a behind-the-scenes look at how the corporatocracy asserts its power in developing countries around the world:

We economic hit men are crafty; we learned from history. Today we do not carry swords. We do not wear armor or clothes that set us apart. In countries like Ecuador, Nigeria, and Indonesia, we dress like local schoolteachers and shop owners...We visit project sites and stroll through impoverished villages...We cover the conference tables of government committees with our spreadsheets and financial projections, and we lecture at the Harvard Business School about the miracles of macroeconomics. We are on the record, in the open...

However - and this is a very large caveat - if we fail, an even more sinister breed steps in, ones we economic hit men refer to as the jackals...The jackals are always there, lurking in the shadows. When they emerge, heads of state are overthrown or die in violent "accidents." And if by chance the jackals fail, as they failed in Afghanistan and Iraq, then the old models resurface. When the jackals fail, young Americans are sent in to kill and to die.

Fresh numbers on Americans' approval...

...of both President Bush and the Democrats' Congress. Guess I'm not the only one who's having trouble telling the difference:

Bush, Congress at record low ratings: Reuters poll
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush and the U.S. Congress registered record-low approval ratings in a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday, and a new monthly index measuring the mood of Americans dipped slightly on deepening worries about the economy.

Only 29 percent of Americans gave Bush a positive grade for his job performance, below his worst Zogby poll mark of 30 percent in March. A paltry 11 percent rated Congress positively, beating the previous low of 14 percent in July...

The national survey of 1,011 likely voters, taken September 13 through September 16, found barely one-quarter of Americans, or 27 percent, believe the country is headed in the right direction. Nearly 62 percent think the country is on the wrong track...

Most of the polling was done after a speech by Bush and testimony to Congress by the top commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, indicating the United States would make some reductions but planned to keep high troop levels in Iraq for the foreseeable future.

From the John Edwards website...

...this satisfying press release, with an interesting challenge to Senator Clinton. Key excerpts:

"During the Slate/Yahoo/Huffington Post debate, which aired online today, Senator Clinton said the difference between lobbyists and regular Americans is an 'artificial distinction.' She is wrong. These lobbyists are legally required to register with the government to influence legislation. And, more than most, Senator Clinton should know that Washington is awash with campaign money from these lobbyists. It is wrong and it has to stop...

"John Edwards believes it's time to end the game and be honest with the American people. It's time for us to have the strength to say no to Washington lobbyists' money so we can deliver the real change America deserves. That's why, once again, John Edwards renews his challenge to Senator Clinton to join with him in demanding the Democratic Party lead the way to real reform by refusing, as a party, to take campaign contributions from Washington lobbyists."

For more news from the Edwards camp, check here.

Checking the oddsboard...

...at my favorite online casino reveals the following payouts for bets on who's going to win the Democratic nomination:

Hillary Clinton 2 - 3
Barack Obama 3 - 2
John Edwards 5 – 1
Al Gore 7 – 2
Bill Richardson 10 - 1
Joe Biden 15 - 1
Chris Dodd 60 - 1
Dennis Kucinich 60 - 1
John Kerry 50 – 1

How to interpret these odds? It's easy: the first number is the amount you win if you bet the second number and your candidate is victorious. So you'd win $2 for every $3 you bet on Hillary, $3 for every $2 you bet on Obama, $5 for every $1 you bet on Edwards, and so on.

Now, I'm a Dennis Kucinich supporter, and I will vote for him in Cali's primary on February 5. But for reasons I don't understand, most of my fellow Democrats are not down with Kucinich For President, even though many admit that he is the candidate whose views most closely reflect their own. Apparently sheep, like horses, can be led to water but not counted on to drink it. Anyway, with a heavy heart, I crossed Kucinich off my list of potential bets.

Somehow it was much easier to cross off Joe Biden and Chris Dodd. And I crossed off Al Gore and John Kerry with enthusiasm; those losers have had their shot at the presidency and couldn't even win against George W. Bush. I could have won against George W. Bush! (Spare me the whining about Florida, Ohio, and election theft - if either Gore or Kerry were worth a damn, they would have blown Bush away, whether Kathleen Harris was stuffing ballots in her bra or not.)

So I got down to Hillary, Barak, and John Edwards, and I took another long, hard look at the odds above. I tried my best to envision Hillary or Barak winning the nomination. Then I plopped $100 on Edwards.

Edwards is no slam dunk, but he's a man, he's white, and he's a household name - a formula that has met with some success in the past. Add the fact that Edwards is a Southern boy with a made-for-TV smile, and 5-1 starts to look awful compelling. Then again, Hillary does have Rupert Murdoch in her corner...

Saw Congressman Bob Filner the other day...

...heard him speak at a meeting of the San Diego County Young Democrats. Filner had just returned from Iraq, a trip he made in conjunction with his new role as chairman of the House's Veterans Affairs committee. Filner seemed tired, but he was still interesting, primarily speaking to the group about the amazing work of the people in our armed forces, and how those people deserve as much government attention on the way home from war as they do on the way to it.

Filner peppered his talk with some great stats on the military and on the entrenchment of politicians in Congress. One interesting stat on the latter topic, for instance, is that - in the House of Representatives - only about 25 of 435 seats are seriously contended each election cycle. And we wonder why the people's will is stymied?

Here are some other mind-boggling tidbits Filner shared:

--Members of the Soviet Union's Communist Party won re-election 97.0% of the time.
--Members of the United States Congress win re-election 98.6% of the time.

--The average soldier in Iraq sustains 7 (seven) concussions per tour of duty.

--58,000 U.S. soldiers were killed in the Vietnam War.
--A higher number have killed themselves since coming home from the War.

--Roughly 50%* of our nation's homeless are veterans of the Vietnam War.

*Update 11/7/07:
Study: 1 out of 4 homeless are veterans

By KIMBERLY HEFLING
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Veterans make up one in four homeless people in the United States, though they are only 11 percent of the general adult population, according to a report to be released Thursday.

And homelessness is not just a problem among middle-age and elderly veterans. Younger veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan are trickling into shelters and soup kitchens seeking services, treatment or help with finding a job.

Too good to make up...

...are these gems from dear President Bush, on his plans for the post-presidency era of his life. From a NYTimes.com article on Dead Certain, a forthcoming book with a lengthy Bush interview, by Robert Draper. Don't miss the part toward the end, where he describes the central goal of remaining time in office.

First, Mr. Bush said, “I’ll give some speeches, just to replenish the ol’ coffers.” With assets that have been estimated as high as nearly $21 million, Mr. Bush added, “I don’t know what my dad gets — it’s more than 50-75” thousand dollars a speech, and “Clinton’s making a lot of money.”

Then he said, “We’ll have a nice place in Dallas,” where he will be running what he called “a fantastic Freedom Institute” promoting democracy around the world. But he added, “I can just envision getting in the car, getting bored, going down to the ranch.”

For now, though, Mr. Bush told the author, Robert Draper, in a later session, “I’m playing for October-November.” That is when he hopes the Iraq troop increase will finally show enough results to help him achieve the central goal of his remaining time in office: “To get us in a position where the presidential candidates will be comfortable about sustaining a presence,” and, he said later, “stay longer.”

But fully aware of his standing in opinion polls, Mr. Bush said his top commander in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus would perhaps do a better job selling progress to the American people than he could.

Boo this article...

...and boo the White House, boo Congress, boo Duke University. From an article on NYTimes.com today:

White House Is Gaining Confidence It Can Win Fight in Congress Over Iraq Policy
SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 — The White House is growing more confident that it can beat back efforts by Congressional Democrats to shift course in Iraq, a significant turnabout from two months ago, when a string of Republican defections had administration officials worried that President Bush’s troop buildup was in serious danger on Capitol Hill.

Current and former administration officials say they realize that the September battle over the troop buildup will be difficult. But they also say the president’s hand is stronger now than it was in early July, when Republican senators like Pete V. Domenici of New Mexico and Richard G. Lugar of Indiana publicly called for a change of course.

“There is a tonal shift, and that is important, but there is always the chance that it could be ephemeral, in the same way that the panic of early July proved ephemeral,” said Peter D. Feaver, who helped draft the buildup strategy as an official with the National Security Council but recently returned to his post as a political science professor at Duke University. “I don’t detect any triumphalism in the White House.”

A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid upstaging the president, said there was “a sense the dynamic has changed.” But the official was also cautious, adding: “I don’t want to portray overconfidence. This is a very important debate, and September is going to be a very important month.”

Here's a Bush report card of sorts...

...from the perspective of the people, it ain't exactly a record to pin up on the refrigerator. And speaking of inflation, you seen the price of milk lately?!

UPDATE Aug21: A very well-informed reader clued me in on a fascinating critique of the New York Times article mentioned above. As I read the critique, I grew increasingly hostile at what began to seem like clear bias on the part of the Times. Then I read the comments below the article - and was delighted to note that the author of the Times article had weighed in with a thorough response.

After making my way to the end of the unusually candid back and forth, I was a bit confused as to who to believe (though the Times reporter scores big points when he describes the exposes he's written on, well, biased reporting). Both sides make their cases skillfully, each offering perspectives that educated people could adopt without suffering from cognitive dissonance. Perhaps it's because the issue isn't a clear cut one...I mean, the numbers show that, while many people's incomes haven't gone anywhere in years, many other people's incomes have. But the only glaring takeaway I got from the exchange is a new appreciation for how delicate the truth really is.

The discussion of the Times article is a quick and deep look into the controversy surrounding media bias, featuring a blogosphere no-name taking a swing at a mainstream media heavyweight, and earning a response. Give it a read - regardless of which side you shake out on, the debate will remind you of how important it is to have your B.S. detector set on high at all times.

On the economics tip...

...an astute, comprehensive, and unemotional hypothesis regarding the current situation - from a local commenter on an AP article in San Diego's Union-Tribune:

By KirkH on 08/15/2007

From Wikipedia:
"In monetary economics, a liquidity trap occurs when the economy is stagnant, the nominal interest rate is close or equal to zero, and the monetary authority is unable to stimulate the economy with traditional monetary policy tools. In this kind of situation, people do not expect high returns on physical or financial investments, so they keep assets in short-term cash bank accounts or hoards rather than making long-term investments. This makes the recession even more severe."

We're all probably going to hear a lot about "pushing on a string" as rates drop. Most of the Fed's liquidity injections are flowing straight into T-Bills because this is a solvency crisis not a liquidity crisis. The odds of people paying back these Alt-A, subprime, and even prime loans are so low because prices are high. If you owe $500,000 on a home worth $300,000 you're highly likely to walk away, regardless of your credit score.

The Fed will cut rates but banks will continue to refuse to make these toxic loans. Because they're toxic. Housing prices will absolutely drop by half in the absence of these loans and the resultant negative wealth effect will kick our 70% consumer spending based economy squarely in the nads.

The Fed knows this hence the rate cuts we're about to see. I don't think it'll make much of a difference but you never know, now could be a huge buying opportunity.

"Hillary Clinton: The Right's Choice?"

...argh, the chills this LA Times op-ed piece will give you:

Hillary: the right's choice?
Clinton's free-trade economics and posturing on security could endear her to conservatives unimpressed by the GOP field.
By Bruce Bartlett, LA Times, August 10, 2007

Is hell freezing over? One might think so after reading recent comments from editors at National Review and the Weekly Standard, America's leading conservative magazines. Over the last 15 years, both magazines seldom have passed up an opportunity to excoriate Hillary Rodham Clinton as some kind of crypto-communist.

No more. Today, Sen. Clinton is rapidly becoming not merely acceptable to many right-wingers but possibly even their candidate of choice...

Clinton's unwillingness to pander to her own party's base on Iraq has won her grudging respect from another unlikely source as well: William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard. On Aug. 7, he was quoted in the Washington Post saying that compared with Sen. Barack Obama, who is trying to energize the left to raise his falling poll numbers, she is looking quite presidential.

"Obama," Kristol said, "is becoming the antiwar candidate, and Hillary Clinton is becoming the responsible Democrat who could become commander in chief in a post-9/11 world."

China hosts the Olympics in one year...

...and what an ethical conundrum it represents. Given the country's disgusting human rights record, is it right to bestow the Olympics upon China? At what point do you reach out to an offender, and at what point do you start thinking embargo? Or might the Olympics question be a moot point, given the ringing endorsement the rest of the world gives China in the form of all the business we do there? Hmmm...

Beijing accused of unfair play
By Mitchell Landsberg, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
August 7, 2007

BEIJING — If there were an Olympic medal for irony, this might have been a contender:

An international press freedom organization held a demonstration Monday to complain that China has failed to live up to promises that it would give foreign journalists the unfettered ability to cover the news in the run-up to the 2008 Summer Games. The result? Not long after the demonstration ended, police roughed up and briefly detained the journalists covering the event.

The almost perfect incongruity of Monday's face-off reflects a discordant side of the Olympics that is sure to grow as the Games draw closer. To China, the Olympics represent a golden opportunity to showcase the world's most populous nation and demonstrate how far it has come. To international human rights organizations, it is an opportunity to show how far it still has to go...